Offline: The path out of lockdown

“Just read your paper. Hmm...it reads well, until you try and imagine what it actually will mean in practice.” This response was from someone who understands well the burden of mental trauma this pandemic is causing. His objection to argument for Zero-COVID that seemed endorse “the greatest imposition restricted civil liberties ever seen peacetime”. Indeed, during World War 2 cinemas, theatres, cafes, restaurants, pubs all remained open. He concluded: “If I allowed vote on Brave New World, would reject firmly...We now teach every medical student patients have right make their own choices, even when they are bad ones, inevitably lead demise.” My friend has powerful support. Writing The Mail Sunday last weekend, former Supreme Court Justice Lord Jonathan Sumption argued a “mirage”, lockdowns were “a sinister untried experiment”, “we must learn how live with [this] disease, as our ancestors always done.” What, then, sustainable way out lockdown? Take UK an example. If one looks at average number cases per 100 000 population (using 7-day averages), rate peaked Jan 4, 2021, 641·9. latest reported (Feb 3) 208·6, 67·5% decline. maintains its existing lockdown measures, community transmission could largely be halted towards end February. suppression stable several weeks, envisage some easing mandates by mid-March. There caveats. First, predominant virus variant more transmissible B.1.1.7 strain. course decline may not linear am assuming. Second, we still living through winter, conditions favour household if social mixing inadvertently caused infection family member. Third, continuing falls depend public support, which cannot taken granted. Finally, there vaccination, surely vaccination enable early spring opening virtually guaranteed. conclusion seems entirely reasonable. 15 million those most risk serious illness track receive first inoculation Feb 15. Once been translated into immunity (early March), protection vulnerable, temporally combined very low levels transmission, give compelling force libertarian voices wish see earliest possible reopening society. Israel's experience lends support view. Those undergo seem benefit accelerated new compared unvaccinated. But advocating premature optimism. Even assuming no takes hold (the South African 501Y.V2 or B.1.351 lineage, E484K spike mutation, identified UK) vaccine supplies remain uninterrupted, scale challenge facing underestimated. Joint Committee Vaccination Immunisation further 16 people older than 50 years COVID-19. It take least May 6 before dose vaccine. At point, 30 across susceptible infection. Lifting risking surging back put proportion vaccinated danger. moment mark transfer power scientists politicians. point conversation place. Do continue physical distancing, persistent disruptions schools, universities, workplaces, leisure activities, about three-quarters immunised (achieving herd immunity) do agree finite deaths accepted return relatively normal lives? Our society normalised many diseases. Why should COVID-19 any different? In England, influenza vary thousand year. question politicians answer this: willing accept? And trust answer?